Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.088188 0.100556 0.113983 0.129638 0.147383 0.166868 0.189882
2026-01-11 0.069317 0.085389 0.104167 0.127706 0.156404 0.190242 0.233158
2026-01-18 0.056322 0.074508 0.097242 0.127698 0.167388 0.217321 0.284884
2026-01-25 0.043665 0.061851 0.086102 0.120718 0.168781 0.233076 0.325559
2026-02-01 0.033698 0.050980 0.075501 0.112698 0.167562 0.245375 0.363992
2026-02-08 0.026955 0.043431 0.068238 0.108114 0.170410 0.263792 0.414175
2026-02-15 0.021642 0.037052 0.061612 0.103346 0.172224 0.281063 0.465718
2026-02-22 0.018588 0.033706 0.059134 0.104667 0.183799 0.315180 0.549234
2026-03-01 0.015221 0.029190 0.053950 0.100598 0.185824 0.334240 0.611372
2026-03-08 0.012676 0.025653 0.049836 0.097668 0.189323 0.356347 0.682465
2026-03-15 0.010636 0.022669 0.046201 0.094966 0.192769 0.378891 0.758088
2026-03-22 0.009465 0.021182 0.045162 0.097086 0.205776 0.421178 0.877828
2026-03-29 0.008112 0.019095 0.042649 0.096003 0.212699 0.453771 0.986036
2026-04-05 0.007110 0.017573 0.041050 0.096595 0.223323 0.495764 1.121169
2026-04-12 0.006326 0.016394 0.039992 0.098219 0.236576 0.545623 1.282052
2026-04-19 0.005299 0.014400 0.036689 0.094048 0.235998 0.565413 1.380125
2026-04-26 0.004380 0.012474 0.033171 0.088679 0.231628 0.575980 1.459132
2026-05-03 0.003732 0.011119 0.030809 0.085750 0.232735 0.599665 1.573895
2026-05-10 0.003172 0.009878 0.028491 0.082477 0.232378 0.619800 1.683658
2026-05-17 0.002876 0.009335 0.027957 0.083962 0.244952 0.674707 1.892343
2026-05-24 0.002467 0.008352 0.025988 0.081004 0.244796 0.696525 2.017459
2026-05-31 0.002143 0.007561 0.024411 0.078880 0.246631 0.724073 2.163313
2026-06-07 0.001869 0.006862 0.022971 0.076876 0.248462 0.751984 2.315315